Independent equity research · US listings

We publish the model, not just the number.

Most research hands you a target price and asks you to trust it. Every report here ships with the working valuation model, open and adjustable. Disagree with an assumption, change it, and see what your own view is worth per share.

Try a live model ↓
The model, liveEvery report ships one

Change an assumption and watch the value move

This is not a demonstration. It is the working model out of our AppLovin report, the same one that produced the $300–375 band on the list below. Drag any input, or load one of the three cases, and the fair value recomputes in front of you. Every report on this site carries one of these.

Assumptions

Result

$304.3
Modelled DCF value per shareAgainst $311.98 last
PV of 5yr FCF
PV of terminal
Enterprise value
Net debt
Equity value

Terminal value is 74% of enterprise value, and net debt is almost nothing. The duration assumption is the entire risk in this model.

Modelled under our own assumptions, not a price target and not a forecast. Figures as at the 17 Aug 2026 close. The reasoning behind every input is in the full report.

Cadence

New coverage weekly. Every rating reviewed each quarter on results, and immediately on a material event.

Coverage bias

We start where the sell side stops — US listings with thin or no analyst coverage, where an extra pair of eyes is actually worth something.

Disclosure

Author positions are published on every report, with a fixed no-trade window either side of publication.

Track record

Every rating, its date, its price and what happened next — kept public whether or not it flatters us.

Read this first

Everything here is published for information and education. It is not financial advice. Sonde is not a licensed investment adviser, has no clients, and knows nothing about your money or your circumstances. Every fair value on this site is our own estimate under our own assumptions — not a price target, not a forecast, and not a fact about the company. That is exactly why the assumptions ship with it. The terms say the same thing at greater length.

Published coverage12 reports live
PL
Planet Labs PBCEarth observation & geospatial data · initiating coverage
$6.20–10.60 fair value · 8 Sep 2026
Model
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.Optical components & AI infrastructure · initiating coverage
$60–125 fair value · 2 Sep 2026
Model
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.Space & defence · initiating coverage
$11–29 fair value · 1 Sep 2026
Model
APP
AppLovin CorporationMobile advertising technology · initiating coverage
$300–375 fair value · 18 Aug 2026
Model
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc.AI cloud infrastructure · initiating coverage
$90–135 fair value · 12 Aug 2026
Model
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.Enterprise & government AI software · initiating coverage
$100–130 fair value · 4 Aug 2026
Model
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.Consumer credit technology · initiating coverage
$14–22 fair value · 3 Aug 2026
Model
TER
Teradyne, Inc.Semiconductor test equipment · initiating coverage
Base case $177 · 30 Jul 2026
Model
KLAC
KLA CorporationSemiconductor process control · initiating coverage
$110–155 fair value · 29 Jul 2026
Model
BE
Bloom Energy CorporationDistributed power generation · initiating coverage
$95–125 fair value · 29 Jul 2026
Model
AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.Semiconductor assembly & test · initiating coverage
~$50 fair value · 29 Jul 2026
Model
APLD
Applied Digital CorporationData centre infrastructure · initiating coverage
$26–34 fair value · 28 Jul 2026
Model

Every figure above is a modelled fair value under our own assumptions, not a price target and not a forecast. The model behind each one is on the report, and you can change it.

Why this exists

Three things that are wrong with equity research on the internet

Targets get published without the arithmetic behind them, so a reader has no way to tell a considered view from a guess. Coverage clusters on the same two hundred large caps, leaving the half of the US market with no analyst attention genuinely unexamined. And the author's own position — the single most useful piece of context a reader could have — is almost never disclosed.

This publication fixes all three, and treats the fixes as the product rather than the paperwork.

Access

Read the next one first.

Every report is published in full and free, permanently — model included. Get new coverage by email as it publishes, or see the founding-member tier for reports 72 hours early and a say in what gets covered.

No card, no paywall. Privacy policy.